Publications and outputs

PEER REVIEWED JOURNAL PUBLICATIONS

Brown C, McDonald G, Uma SR, Smith N, Sadashiva V, Buxton R, Grace E, Seville E, Daly M. 2020. From physical disruption to community impact: Modelling a Wellington Fault earthquake. Australasian Journal of Disaster and Trauma Studies, 23, 2, 65-75.

Cardwell R, McDonald G & Wotherspoon L. 2020. Simulation of post-volcanic eruption time variant land use and economic impacts in the Auckland region of New Zealand. Bulletin of Volcanology, 82(9), 64. DOI:10.1007/s00445-020-01400-9.

McDonald N, Timar L, McDonald G & Murray C. 2020. Better resilience evaluation: Reflections on Investments in Seismic Resilience for Infrastructure.  Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 53(4), 203-214. DOI: 10.5459/bnzsee.53.4.203-214

McDonald N & McDonald G. 2020. Towards a Dynamic Equilibrium-Seeking Model of a Closed Economy. Systems, 8, 42; DOI:10.3390/systems8040042.

Brown C, Seville E, Hatton T, Stevenson J, Smith N, Vargo, J. 2019. Accounting for business adaptations in economic disruption models. Journal of Infrastructure Systems. 25. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)IS.1943-555X.0000470

McDonald G, Smith N, Kim, J.-H & Brown C, Buxton, R & Seville, E. 2018. Economic Systems Modelling of Infrastructure Interdependencies for an Alpine Fault Earthquake in New Zealand. Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems. DOI: 10.1080/10286608.2018.1544627.

Harvey EP, Cardwell RC, McDonald GW, van Delden H, Vanhout R,  Kim, J-H, Smith NJ, Forgie, VE, van den Belt, M. Developing integrated models by coupling together existing models; Land use, economics, demographics and transport in Wellington, New Zealand. 2018. Computers, Environment, and Urban Systems. 74. DOI: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2018.07.004.

McDonald G, Smith N, Kim J-H & Cronin S. 2017. The spatial and temporal 'cost' of volcanic eruptions: assessing the economic impact, business inoperability, and spatial distribution of risk in the Auckland region, New Zealand. Bulletin of Volcanology, 79, 48. DOI 10.1007/s00445-017-1133-9.

Blake DM, Deligne NI, Wilson TM, Lindsay JM, Woods R. 2017. Investigating the consequences of urban volcanism using a scenario approach II: Insights into transportation network damage and functionality. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 340: 92-116. DOI: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.04.010.

Brown C, Seville E, & Vargo, J. 2017. Efficacy of insurance for organisational disaster recovery: Case study of the 2010 and 2011 Canterbury earthquakes. Disasters, 41(2), 388-408.

Deligne NI, Fitzgerald RH, Blake DM, Davies AJ, Hayes JL, Stewart C, Wilson G, Wilson TM, Castelino R, Kennedy BM. 2017. Investigating the consequences of urban volcanism using a scenario approach I: Development and application of a hypothetical eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field, New Zealand. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 336: 192-208. DOI: 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2017.02.023.

McDonald G, Cronin S, Kim J-H, Smith N, Murray C, Proctor J. 2017. Computable General Equilibrium Modelling of Economic Impacts from Volcanic Event Scenarios at Regional and National Scale, Mt. Taranaki, New Zealand. Bulletin of Volcanology, 79, 1-18. DOI: 10.1007/s00445-017-1171-3.

Giovinazzi S, Brown C, Seville E, Stevenson J, Hatton T, Vargo, J. 2016. Criticality of Infrastructures for Organisations. International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, 12 (4), 331-363.

Brown C, Stevenson J, Giovinazzi S, Seville E, & Vargo J. 2015. Factors influencing impacts on and recovery trends of organisations: evidence from the 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquakes. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 14, 56-72.

Murray C, McDonald G, Cronin S. 2014. Interpreting Auckland's volcanic governance through an institutional lens. Natural Hazards Journal, DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1340-z.

Poontirakul P, Brown C, Seville E, Vargo J, Noy I. 2017. Insurance as a Double-Edged Sword: Quantitative Evidence from the 2011 Christchurch Earthquake. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance-Issues and Practice, 42(4), 609-632.

Seville E, Van Opstal D, Vargo J. 2015. A Primer in Resiliency: Seven Principles for Managing the Unexpected. Global Business and Organizational Excellence. Vol 34:3, 6-8. March/April 2015. DOI: 10.1002/joe.21600.

Smith N, Brown C, McDonald G, Ayers M, Kipp R & Saunders. 2017. Challenges and Opportunities for Economic Evaluation of Disaster Risk Decisions. Economics of Disaster and Climate Change, DOI 10.1007/s41885-017-0007-0.

Smith, NJ, McDonald, GW, Murray CF. 2015. The costs and benefits of water demand management: evidence from New Zealand. Water and Environment Journal, 29(2), pp. 180-189. DOI:10.1111/wej.12098.

Stevenson JR, Brown C, Seville E,  Vargo J. 2017. Business recovery: an assessment framework. Disasters. DOI: 10.1111/disa.12261.

BOOKS AND BOOK CHAPTERS

Eaves A, Kench P, McDonald G, Dickson M. 2019. Balancing sustainable coastal management with development in New Zealand. In: P Khaiter & M Erectchoukova (Eds). Sustainability Perspectives: Science Policy and Practice. Springer, NY. Pp97-118.

Seville, E. 2016. What is a Resilience Approach? In: The Risk Management Handbook: A Practical Guide to Managing the Multiple Dimensions of Risk, Kogan Page.

Seville, E. 2016. Resilient Organizations: How to survive, thrive and create opportunities through crisis and change. Kogan Page.

Stevenson J, Noy I, McDonald G, Seville E & Vargo J. 2016. Economic and Business Recovery. In: Natural Hazard Science, Oxford Research Encyclopaedias, DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.19.

Stevenson, J., Giovinazzi, S., Seville, E., Brown, C., Chang-Richards, Y. A., & Wilkinson, S. 2015. From Disaster to Opportunity: Reviving Urban Function after the Canterbury Earthquakes. Cities at Risk: Planning for and Recovering from Natural Disasters, 97.

McDonald, G., Smith, N. and Murray, C. 2014. Economic Impact of Seismic Events: Modelling. In Beer, M., Patelli, E., Kougiomtzoglou, I.A. and Siu-Kui Au, I. (Eds) 2014. Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering. Springer.

Seville, E., Vargo, J., Noy, I. 2014. Economic recovery following earthquake disasters. In Beer, M., Patelli, E., Kougiomtzoglou, I.A. and Siu-Kui Au, I. (Eds) 2014. Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering. Springer.

CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS - PAPERS

Eaves A, Kench P, Dickson M & McDonald G. 2019. Coastal zone management, a case for integrating economic impact modelling and robust decision making with scenario planning. Presented at the New Zealand Coastal Society Conference 2019 - Life on the Edge - Mataroa kei runga i te Tapātai, 12-15 Nov 2019, Invercargill, New Zealand.

Smith N, McDonald G, Brown C, Seville E, Buxton R, Uma S, Horspool N, Grace E, Harvey E, Ayers, M & Kim J-H. 2018. The Wellington Lifelines Regional Resilience Project, Wellington Lifelines, Wellington.

Smith N, McDonald G, Harvey E, Kim J-H. 2017. Introducing the MERIT economic model: a dynamic general equilibrium-seeking model to support decision analysis when out-of-equilibrium dynamics are important. The 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation (MODSIM 2017), Hobart, Tasmania, Australia, 3-5 Dec 2017.

Hayes JL, Blake DM, Davies AJ, Fitzgerald RH, Wilson G, Wilson TM, Deligne NI, Grace ES, Potter SH, Stewart C. 2016. A multi-disciplinary approach to developing a volcanic eruption scenario and temporal evolution of impacts to critical infrastructure. 10 p. In: Gazetas, G. (conference chair) 1st International Conference on Natural Hazards & Infrastructure 28-30 June, 2016, Chania, Greece.

Baker J, Cremman J, Giovinazzi S, Seville E, "Benchmarking FEMA P-58 seismic performance predictions against observed earthquake data - A preliminary evaluation for the Canterbury earthquake sequence" NZSEE conference, Christchurch, 1-3 April, 2016.

Blake DM, Wilson TM, Deligne NI, Lindsay J, Cole J. 2016. Impacts of Volcanic Ash on Road Transportation: considerations for Resilience in Central Auckland. Paper presented at the 2016 IPENZ Transportation Group Conference, 7-9 March 2016, Auckland, New Zealand.

Buxton R, McDonald G, Seville E, Daly M, Smith N. 2015. It has MERIT! The development of a system dynamic tool for modelling the economic effects of infrastructure outages. Paper presented at the 2015 IPWEA Conference, 8-11 June 2015, Rotorua, New Zealand.

Daly M, Buxton R, McDonald G, Smith, N, Wright K, Timar L. 2015. Single Infrastructure Failures: Capturing outage information for MERIT Modelling the Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Tool. Paper presented at the 2015 IPWEA Conference, 8-11 June, Rotorua, New Zealand.

Seville E, Stevenson JR, Vargo J, Brown, C, Giovinazzi, S. 2015. Resilience and Recovery: Business Behaviour Following the Canterbury Earthquakes.  Paper presented at the NIST Workshop on the Economics of Community Disaster Resilience, 29-30 April 2015, Washington DC.

Van Delden H, McDonald G, Vanhout R. 2015. Challenges and opportunities for integrating land use, transport and socio-economic models. In: Weber T, McPhee MJ, Anderssen RS. (Eds) MODSIM 2015 Book of Abstracts, 21st International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, 29 November - 4 December, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia. p.252.

McDonald G, Daly M, Deligne N, Smith N. 2014. Evaluating Economic Impacts of Infrastructure Outages: Introducing the MERIT Model and its Applicability to Volcanic Disasters. Presentation at the Cities on Volcanoes Conference, September 2014, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.

McDonald G, Smith N, Kim J-H, Cronin S, Proctor J. 2014. Quantifying Business Inoperability Losses: Economic Vulnerability Mapping for the Auckland Volcanic Field, Auckland City, New Zealand. Cities on Volcanoes Conference, September 2014, Yogyakarta, Indonesia.

McDonald G, Fenwick F & Buxton B. 2014. Economic Modelling and Interdependency Analysis. National Lifelines Forum, Wellington, New Zealand, 5-6 Nov 2014.

CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS - ABSTRACTS

Cardwell R. 2017. Integrated transport/land use models: ISE and SpatialMERIT. Transport Knowledge Conference, 2017, 27-29 November, Grafton Campus, The University of Auckland.

Deligne NI, Blake D, Davies A, Fitzgerald R, Hayes J, Kennedy B, Stewart C, Wilson G, Wilson T. 2016. Investigating the consequences of an Auckland Volcanic Field eruption using a scenario Volcanic Field eruption using a scenario. Presentation at Cities on Volcanoes 9, Puerto Varas, Chile, 20-25 November 2016.

Seville E, Brown C. 2015.  Modelling the Economics of Resilient Infrastructure. Presentation at the Resilient Cities Congress, Bonn, Germany, 8-11 June 2015.

Seville E. 2015. What Resilience Means for Business Continuity Managers, Opening Keynote Presentation, BCI Summit, Sydney, Australia, 13-14 May 2015.

Smith NJ, McDonald GW, Harvey EP, Kim J-H. 2017. Introducing the MERIT economic model: a dynamic general equilibrium-seeking model to support decision analysis when out-of-equilibrium dynamics are important. MODSIM Conference: Managing cumulative risks through model-based processes, Hobart, 4-8th December.

van Delden H, McDonald GW, Smith N, Buxton R. 2017. Infrastructure disruption using Spatial-MERIT within Greater Auckland, New Zealand, MODSIM Conference: Managing cumulative risks through model-based processes, Hobart, 4-8th December.

TECHNICAL AND SCIENCE REPORTS

Smith N, Brown C, McDonald G & Vergara M-J. 2019. Economics of Fuel Supply Disruptions and Mitigations: A report prepared for Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment. Market Economics, Takapuna.

Brown C, Horspool N, McDonald G, Sampson K, Seville E, Smith N, Stevenson J. 2018. Lessons from the 2016 Kaikoura Earthquake: Understanding the Impacts of a Potential Alpine Fault Earthquake on Government Productivity in Wellington. Resilient Organisations, Christchurch.

McDonald G, Smith N, Ayers M, Kim J-H, & Harvey E. 2017. Economic impact of the 2016 Kaikoura Earthquake. A report prepared for the Ministry of Transport. Market Economics Ltd, Takapuna.

Cardwell RC, McDonald GW, Smith NJ. 2016. Economic Impacts of a Hypothetical Lyttelton Port Outage: A confidential report prepared for Lyttelton Port Company under the Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Research Programme. Takapuna, Market Economics Ltd.

Hatton T, Seville E, Brown C, Stevenson JR. 2016. Businesses and the Canterbury earthquakes: how do their experiences translate to other contexts?  Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Research Report 2016/01.

Kim J-H, Smith NJ, McDonald GW. 2016. Auckland Electricity Outage Scenario: Modelling the Economic Consequences of Interruptions in Infrastructure Service using MERIT. Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Research Report 2016/04. 30p.

Kim J-H, Smith, NJ, McDonald GW. 2016.  Economic Impacts of a Hypothetical Alpine Fault Seismic Event - A Multi-Infrastructure Outage Scenario. Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Research Report 2016.

McDonald GW, van Delden H, vanhout, R, Smith NJ, Cardwell RC, Kim J-H. 2016. Spatial MERIT. Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Research Report.

Smith N, Orchiston C, Harvey E, Kim J, Brown C. 2016. Scoping Tourism Dynamics Post-Quake: a module for MERIT. 211111 NZTA QuakeCoRE Tourism Report.

Smith NJ, Harvey E, McDonald GW. 2016. Full mathematical description of MERIT. Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Research Report.

Smith NJ; McDonald GW, Kim J-H. 2016. Economic Impacts of the State Highway 4 Outage - June 2015. Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Research Report 2016/03. 15 p.

Smith NJ, Kim J-H, McDonald GW. 2016. Auckland Water Outage Scenario: Modelling the Economic Consequences of Interruptions in Infrastructure Service using MERIT. Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Research Report 2016/02. 23p.

Deligne NI, Blake DM, Davies AJ, Grace ES, Hayes J, Potter S, Stewart C, Wilson , Wilson TM. 2015. Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Auckland Volcanic Field Scenario. Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Research Report 2015/03. 151 p.

Brown C, Giovinazzi S, Seville E, Vargo J, Stevenson JR. 2015. Developing the Business Behaviours Module within MERIT.  Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Research Report 2015/02. 71p.- addendum added January 2016.

Buxton R, McDonald G, Fenwick T, Hutchings, Mieler D. 2015. A sectoral level interdependencies model for critical infrastructure, GNS Science Report 2015/29. 27p.

Smith NJ, Zhang Y, Cardwell R, McDonald GW., Kim J.-H, Murray CF. 2015. Development of a Regional Social Accounting Framework for New Zealand. Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Research Report 2015/01. 71p.

Buxton R, Wright KC, Daly MC, Timar, L, Mieler D. 2014.  Single Infrastructure Failures: capturing outage information for MERIT - Modelling the Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Tool. Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Research Report 2014/01. 56p.

Seville E, Stevenson J, Brown C, Giovinazzi S, Vargo J.  2014.  Disruption and Resilience: How Organisations coped with the Canterbury Earthquakes.  Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Research Report 2014/02, 45p.

 

CONSULTANCY REPORTS

Brown C, Smith NJ, Buxton R, McDonald GW, Daly MC, Seville E. 2016.  Wellington Water Resilience Project, Economic Pilot Study. ERI Client Report 2016/1. 77 p.

Chang-Richards AY, Seville E, Wilkinson S, Walker B. 2013. Towards a more disaster resilient labour market: policy and practice review in APEC economies. Consultancy Report prepared for APEC Natural Disasters Workforce Project. 80pp.

McDonald GW, Smith NJ. 2014. Review of Economic Contribution Methodology for the Australian National Infrastructure Unit. Market Economics, Takapuna. 7pp.

Resilient Organisations. 2017. Wellington Lifelines Resilience Project Programme Business Case: Business Behaviours Workshops. April 2017 (unpublished report)

Smith NJ, McDonald GW, Kim J-H. 2016. Economic Impacts of the State Highway 4 Outage - June 2015: A report prepared for the Ministry of Transport.  Takapuna, Market Economics Ltd. (see also Economics of Resilient Infrastructure Research Report 2016/03).

OUTREACH

A video on MERIT has been developed with NZTA (NZ Transport Agency). The video discusses the benefits of MERIT over other types of economic modelling, and then discusses application of the model in a transportation context. The video is available on the NZTA website,

"Investing in Lifelines: the need for new civil defence thinking". Stuff on-line media article, Nov. 19, 2016. MERIT team member is interviewed and quoted in the article talking about MERIT and it's relevance for integrated emergency management planning. https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/nz-earthquake/86556635/investing-in-lifelines-the-need-for-new-civil-defence-thinking/